https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/515780
標題: | Effect of diabetes on tuberculosis control in 13 countries with high tuberculosis: A modelling study | 作者: | SUNG-CHING PAN Ku C.-C. Kao D. Ezzati M. CHI-TAI FANG HSIEN-HO LIN |
公開日期: | 2015 | 出版社: | Lancet Publishing Group | 卷: | 3 | 期: | 5 | 起(迄)頁: | 323-330 | 來源出版物: | The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology | 摘要: | Background: Diabetes increases the risk of tuberculosis incidence and the risk of adverse treatment outcomes in patients with tuberculosis. Because prevalence of diabetes is increasing in low-income and middle-income countries where the burden of tuberculosis is high, prevention of diabetes carries the potential to improve tuberculosis control worldwide. Methods: We used dynamic tuberculosis transmission models to analyse the potential effect of diabetes on tuberculosis epidemiology in 13 countries with high tuberculosis burden. We used data for previous diabetes prevalence in each country and constructed scenarios to represent the potential ranges of future diabetes prevalence. The country-specific model was calibrated to the estimated trend of tuberculosis incidence. We estimated the tuberculosis burden that can be reduced by alternative scenarios of diabetes prevention. Findings: If the prevalence of diabetes continues to rise as it has been in the past decade in the 13 countries (base case scenario), by 2035, the cumulative reduction in tuberculosis incidence would be 8·8% (95% credible interval [CrI] 4·0-15·8) and mortality would be 34·0% (30·3-39·6). Lowering the prevalence of diabetes by an absolute level of 6·6-13·8% could accelerate the decline of tuberculosis incidence by an absolute level of 11·5-25·2% and tuberculosis mortality by 8·7-19·4%. Compared with the base case scenario, stopping the rise of diabetes would avoid 6·0 million (95% CrI 5·1-6·9) incident cases and 1·1 million (1·0-1·3) tuberculosis deaths in 13 countries during 20 years. If interventions reduce diabetes incidence by 35% by 2025, 7·8 million (6·7-9·0) tuberculosis cases and 1·5 million (1·3-1·7) tuberculosis deaths could be averted by 2035. Interpretation: The diabetes epidemic could substantially affect tuberculosis epidemiology in high burden countries. The communicable disease and non-communicable disease sectors need to move beyond conventional boundaries and link with each other to form a joint response to diabetes and tuberculosis. Funding: Taiwan National Science Council. ? 2015 Elsevier Ltd. |
URI: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84928696166&doi=10.1016%2fS2213-8587%2815%2900042-X&partnerID=40&md5=c88fd39ed670706865189354b552464c https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/515780 |
ISSN: | 2213-8587 | DOI: | 10.1016/S2213-8587(15)00042-X | SDG/關鍵字: | Afghanistan; Article; bacterial transmission; Bangladesh; Brazil; Cambodia; China; compartment model; death; diabetes mellitus; epidemic; human; incidence; India; Indonesia; mortality; Myanmar; Pakistan; Philippines; prevalence; priority journal; recurrence risk; risk factor; Russian Federation; Thailand; tuberculosis; tuberculosis control; Viet Nam; adult; biological model; Diabetes Complications; disease transmission; female; health; male; sensitivity and specificity; statistics and numerical data; tuberculosis; young adult; Adult; Diabetes Complications; Disease Transmission, Infectious; Female; Global Health; Humans; Incidence; Male; Models, Biological; Prevalence; Risk Factors; Sensitivity and Specificity; Tuberculosis; Young Adult |
顯示於: | 醫學系 |
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