https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/521768
標題: | Characterizing decision-analysis performances of risk prediction models using ADAPT curves | 作者: | WEN-CHUNG LEE Wu Y.-C. |
公開日期: | 2016 | 出版社: | Lippincott Williams and Wilkins | 卷: | 95 | 期: | 2 | 來源出版物: | Medicine (United States) | 摘要: | The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve is a widely used index to characterize the performance of diagnostic tests and prediction models. However, the index does not explicitly acknowledge the utilities of risk predictions. Moreover, for most clinical settings, what counts is whether a prediction model can guide therapeutic decisions in a way that improves patient outcomes, rather than to simply update probabilities. Based on decision theory, the authors propose an alternative index, the "average deviation about the probability threshold" (ADAPT). An ADAPT curve (a plot of ADAPT value against the probability threshold) neatly characterizes the decision-analysis performances of a risk prediction model. Several prediction models can be compared for their ADAPT values at a chosen probability threshold, for a range of plausible threshold values, or for the whole ADAPT curves. This should greatly facilitate the selection of diagnostic tests and prediction models. Copyright ? 2016 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved. |
URI: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84958212559&doi=10.1097%2fMD.0000000000002477&partnerID=40&md5=8791b5f0d6f6d4c1ee18508b2566c4be https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/521768 |
ISSN: | 0025-7974 | DOI: | 10.1097/MD.0000000000002477 | SDG/關鍵字: | Article; average deviation about the probability threshold; controlled study; decision support system; high risk population; human; low risk population; major clinical study; mathematical model; plots and curves; prediction; priority journal; probability; risk assessment; risk prediction; average deviation about the probability threshold curve; breast cancer; computer assisted tomography; decision theory; diagnostic test; mammography; outcome assessment; prediction; receiver operating characteristic; statistical concepts; area under the curve; comparative study; predictive value; risk assessment; statistical model; task performance; Area Under Curve; Decision Support Techniques; Humans; Models, Statistical; Predictive Value of Tests; Risk Assessment; Task Performance and Analysis |
顯示於: | 流行病學與預防醫學研究所 |
在 IR 系統中的文件,除了特別指名其著作權條款之外,均受到著作權保護,並且保留所有的權利。