Predicting the effective reproduction number of COVID-19: inference using human mobility, temperature, and risk awareness
Journal
International Journal of Infectious Diseases
Journal Volume
113
Pages
47
Date Issued
2021-12
Author(s)
Abstract
The effective reproduction number (Rt) has been critical for assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Conventional methods using reported incidences are unable to provide timely Rt data due to the delay from infection to reporting. Our study aimed to develop a framework for predicting Rt in real time, using timely accessible data - i.e. human mobility, temperature, and risk awareness.
Subjects
COVID-19; Japan; effective reproduction number; mobility; regression model; temperature
SDGs
Other Subjects
Article; body temperature; coronavirus disease 2019; cross validation; effective reproduction number; epidemiological data; explanatory variable; human; incidence; linear regression analysis; normal distribution; public health; risk assessment; superspreading event; task performance; uncertainty; basic reproduction number; pandemic; temperature; Basic Reproduction Number; COVID-19; Humans; Pandemics; SARS-CoV-2; Temperature
Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
Type
journal article