https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/598612
標題: | Detecting spikes and change points in climate-food system: A case study in France | 作者: | Lin R.-A Ma H.-W. HWONG-WEN MA |
關鍵字: | Change-point detection;Extreme weather event;Food price shock;Machine learning;Spike detection;sugar;Article;bread;catering service;change point analysis;climate change;climate resilience;control strategy;environmental policy;environmental temperature;extreme weather;food grain;food security;France;grape;insurance;machine learning;outlier detection;price;risk assessment;risk management;singular value decomposition;spike point analysis;time series analysis;wine | 公開日期: | 2022 | 卷: | 127 | 起(迄)頁: | 146-160 | 來源出版物: | Environmental Science and Policy | 摘要: | Effective risk control strategies require reliable risk assessment models to provide support. In recent years, the risk of extreme weather events has increased due to climate change. However, existing assessment models are not essentially used to explore short-term drastic changes in the environment, such as extreme heat or cold. Therefore, we proposed a climate-food risk assessment system that could detect drastic changes, such as extreme weather events and price fluctuations, in a timely and thorough manner. On the one hand, spikes were detected in the climate system. On the other hand, change points were detected in the food system. Finally, an innovative integrated analysis algorithm is carried out to obtain the ranking of highly impacted foods. Across all food supply chains, we found that sugar, bread and grains, and wine in grapes are most closely related to extreme weather events. This discovery needs to be treated with caution. To initiate a feasible control strategy for climate risk, a concrete policy implication was discussed in detail. If properly organized and supervised, the extreme weather agricultural insurance can become a transformative mechanism toward climate resilience. ? 2021 Elsevier Ltd |
URI: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85118496624&doi=10.1016%2fj.envsci.2021.10.018&partnerID=40&md5=072c50cc86b85d64c5ebae032d64b120 https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/598612 |
ISSN: | 14629011 | DOI: | 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.10.018 |
顯示於: | 環境工程學研究所 |
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