https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/624822
標題: | Are Multiseasonal Forecasts of Atmospheric Rivers Possible? | 作者: | KAI-CHIH TSENG Johnson N.C Kapnick S.B Delworth T.L Lu F Cooke W Wittenberg A.T Rosati A.J Zhang L McHugh C Yang X Harrison M Zeng F Zhang G Murakami H Bushuk M Jia L. |
關鍵字: | Atmospheric rivers; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation; multiseasonal prediction | 公開日期: | 2021 | 卷: | 48 | 期: | 17 | 來源出版物: | Geophysical Research Letters | 摘要: | Atmospheric rivers (ARs) exert significant socioeconomic impacts in western North America, where 30 (Formula presented.) of the annual precipitation is determined by ARs that occur in less than 15 (Formula presented.) of wintertime. ARs are thus beneficial to water supply but can produce extreme precipitation hazards when making landfall. While most prevailing research has focused on the subseasonal ((Formula presented.) 5 weeks) prediction of ARs, only limited efforts have been made for AR forecasts on multiseasonal timescales ((Formula presented.) 3 months) that are crucial for water resource management and disaster preparedness. Through the analysis of reanalysis data and retrospective predictions from a new seasonal-to-decadal forecast system, this research shows the existing potential of multiseasonal AR frequency forecasts with predictive skills 9 months in advance. Additional analysis explores the dominant predictability sources and challenges for multiseasonal AR prediction. © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
URI: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85114729459&doi=10.1029%2f2021GL094000&partnerID=40&md5=85817a21ed98d1ca09b96dd9a875eca3 https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/624822 |
ISSN: | 00948276 | DOI: | 10.1029/2021GL094000 | SDG/關鍵字: | Disaster prevention; Precipitation (meteorology); Water management; Water supply; Annual precipitation; Disaster preparedness; Extreme precipitation; Forecast systems; Reanalysis; Socio-economic impacts; Time-scales; Waterresource management; Forecasting; forecasting method; hazard assessment; precipitation (climatology); resource management; socioeconomic impact; water resource; water supply; North America |
顯示於: | 大氣科學系 |
在 IR 系統中的文件,除了特別指名其著作權條款之外,均受到著作權保護,並且保留所有的權利。