https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/625076
標題: | A climatology model for forecasting typhoon rainfall in Taiwan | 作者: | CHENG-SHANG LEE Huang L.-R Shen H.-S Wang, Shi-Ting |
關鍵字: | Quantitative precipitation forecast; Rainfall climatology; Topographical effect; Typhoon; Typhoon landfall; Typhoon rainfall | 公開日期: | 2006 | 卷: | 37 | 期: | 44563 | 起(迄)頁: | 87-105 | 來源出版物: | Natural Hazards | 摘要: | The continuous torrential rain associated with a typhoon often caused flood, landslide or debris flow, leading to serious damages to Taiwan. Thus, a usable scheme to forecast rainfall amount during a typhoon period is highly desired. An analysis using hourly rainfall amounts taken at 371 stations during 1989-2001 showed that the topographical lifting of typhoon circulation played an important role in producing heavier rainfall. A climatology model for typhoon rainfall, which considered the topographical lifting and the variations of rain rate with radius was then developed. The model could provide hourly rainfall at any station or any river basin for a given typhoon center. The cumulative rainfall along the forecasted typhoon track was also available. The results showed that the R2 value between the model estimated and the observed cumulative rainfall during the typhoon period for the Dan-Shui (DSH) and Kao-Ping (KPS) River Basins reached 0.70 and 0.81, respectively. The R2 values decreased slightly to 0.69 and 0.73 if individual stations were considered. However, the values decreased significantly to 0.40 and 0.51 for 3-hourly rainfalls, indicating the strong influence of the transient features in producing the heavier rainfall. In addition, the climatology model can only provide the average conditions. The characteristics in individual typhoons should be considered when applying the model in real-time operation. For example, the model could give reasonable cumulative rainfall amount at DSH before Nakri (2002) made landfall on Taiwan, but overestimated the rainfall after Nakri made landfall and weakened with significant reduction in convection. © Springer 2006. |
URI: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-33644787130&doi=10.1007%2fs11069-005-4658-8&partnerID=40&md5=497271d45efd4280f27fdd5685f0b119 https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/625076 |
ISSN: | 0921030X | DOI: | 10.1007/s11069-005-4658-8 | SDG/關鍵字: | forecasting method; rainfall; typhoon; Asia; Eurasia; Far East; Taiwan |
顯示於: | 大氣科學系 |
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