https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/626709
標題: | Microphysical Perturbation Experiments and Ensemble Forecasts on Summertime Heavy Rainfall over Northern Taiwan | 作者: | JEN-PING CHEN Tsai, TC Tzeng, MD Liao, CS HUNG-CHI KUO Hong, JS |
關鍵字: | Cloud microphysics; Ensembles; Cloud parameterizations; Mesoscale models; CLOUD CONDENSATION NUCLEI; PRECIPITATION FORECASTS; TERMINAL VELOCITIES; PART I; PARAMETERIZATION; MODEL; PREDICTION; THUNDERSTORM; CONVECTION; IMPACT | 公開日期: | 九月-2022 | 出版社: | AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC | 卷: | 37 | 期: | 9 | 起(迄)頁: | 1641 | 來源出版物: | WEATHER AND FORECASTING | 摘要: | Microphysical perturbation experiments were conducted to investigate the sensitivity of convective heavy rain simulation to cloud microphysical parameterization and its feasibility for ensemble forecasts. An ensemble of 20 perturbation members differing in either the microphysics package or process treatments within a single scheme was applied to simulate 10 summer-afternoon heavy-rain convection cases. The simulations revealed substantial disagreements in the location and amplitude of peak rainfall among the microphysics-package and single-scheme members, with an overall spread of 57%–161%, 66%–161%, and 65%–149% of the observed average rainfall, maximum rainfall, and maximum intensity, respectively. The single-scheme members revealed that the simulation of heavy convective precipitation is quite sensitive to factors including ice-particle fall speed parameterization, aerosol type, ice particle shape, and size distribution representation. The microphysical ensemble can derive reasonable probability of occurrence for a location-specific heavy-rain forecast. Spatial-forecast performance indices up to 0.6 were attained by applying an optimal fuzzy radius of about 8 km for the warning-area coverage. The forecasts tend to be more successful for more organized convection. Spectral mapping methods were further applied to provide ensemble forecasts for the 10 heavy rainfall cases. For most cases, realistic spatial patterns were derived with spatial correlation up to 0.8. The quantitative performance in average rainfall, maximum rainfall, and maximum intensity from the ensembles reached correlations of 0.83, 0.84, and 0.51, respectively, with the observed values. |
URI: | https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/626709 | ISSN: | 0882-8156 | DOI: | 10.1175/WAF-D-22-0004.1 |
顯示於: | 大氣科學系 |
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