https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/626711
標題: | A Decade after Typhoon Morakot (2009): What Have We Learned about Its Physics and Predictability? | 作者: | Wang, Chung Chieh HUNG-CHI KUO Chen, Yu Han Chen, Shin Hau Tsuboki, Kazuhisa |
關鍵字: | Extreme events | Hurricanes/typhoons | Mesoscale forecasting | Monsoons | Numerical weather prediction/forecasting | Rainfall | 公開日期: | 1-十二月-2022 | 卷: | 37 | 期: | 12 | 起(迄)頁: | 2161 | 來源出版物: | Weather and Forecasting | 摘要: | Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan during 7–9 August 2009 and became the deadliest tropical cyclone (TC) in five decades by producing up to 2635 mm of rain in 48 h, breaking the world record. The extreme rainfall of Morakot resulted from the strong interaction among several favorable factors that occurred simultaneously. These factors from large scale to small scale include the following: 1) weak environmental steering flow linked to the evolution of the monsoon gyre and consequently slow TC motion; 2) a strong moisture surge due to low-level southwesterly flow; 3) asymmetric rainfall and latent heating near southern Taiwan to further reduce the TC’s forward motion as its center began moving away from Taiwan; 4) enhanced rainfall due to steep topography; 5) atypical structure with a weak inner core, enhancing its suscepti-bility to the latent heating effect; and 6) cell merger and back building inside the rainbands associated with the interaction between the low-level jet and convective updrafts. From a forecasting standpoint, the present-day convective-permitting or cloud-resolving regional models are capable of short-range predictions of the Morakot event starting from 6 August. At longer ranges beyond 3 days, larger uncertainty exists in the track forecast and an ensemble approach is necessary. Due to the large computational demand at the required high resolution, the time-lagged strategy is shown to be a feasible option to produce useful information on rainfall probabilities of the event. |
URI: | https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/626711 | ISSN: | 08828156 | DOI: | 10.1175/WAF-D-21-0197.1 |
顯示於: | 大氣科學系 |
在 IR 系統中的文件,除了特別指名其著作權條款之外,均受到著作權保護,並且保留所有的權利。