Modeling geographical invasions of Solenopsis invicta influenced by land-use patterns

Abstract

Research into geographical invasions of red imported fire ants (RIFAs) by anthropogenic disturbances has received much attention. However, little is known about how land-use change and the characteristics of roads with different land-use types are associated with the risk of RIFA successful invasion or remaining at the highest level of invasion (RIFA SIRH). Furthermore, it was often assumed in prior studies that the risk of RIFA SIRH had a linear association with the independent variables. However, a linear relationship may not reflect the actual circumstances. In this study, we applied linear and nonlinear approaches to assess how land-use types, distance from the nearest road, different land-use types, and spatial factors affect the risk of RIFA SIRH. The results showed that agricultural land, land for transportation usage, and areas that had undergone land-use change from 2014 to 2017 had greater odds of RIFA invasion than natural land cover. We also identified land for transportation usage and the area of land-use change from 2014 to 2017, had more than 60% of RIFA SIRH within 350 m and 150 m from the nearest road. This study provided important insights into RIFA invasions in an isolated island and the areas of control strategies implemented.