https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/641571
標題: | The subseasoanl predictability of the western North Pacific subtropical high and the 2020 record-breaking event | 作者: | KAI-CHIH TSENG Ho, Yun Hsuan |
公開日期: | 1-十二月-2024 | 卷: | 7 | 期: | 1 | 來源出版物: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science | 摘要: | The western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), a prominent feature in the North Pacific during the boreal summer, exerts significant socioeconomic consequences by influencing hydrological extremes such as tropical cyclones, the Meiyu front, and summer heat waves over East Asia. Accurately forecasting the characteristics of the WNPSH over extended timescales is crucial, but subseasonal prediction in this specific context is still in its early stages due to the complex dynamics involved. In this study, we investigate the optimal predictable pattern of the WNPSH using linear stochastic dynamics. Our findings reveal that convection over the Philippine/South China Sea and Japan serves as key precursors, where a dipole vorticity pattern leads to maximum growth of the WNPSH on subseasonal timescales, providing a potential source of predictability. Additionally, we examine the role of optimal predictable patterns in the record-breaking 2020 WNPSH event, and we find that the cumulative effect of stochastic forcing helps explain the sustained features of this extreme case. |
URI: | https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/641571 | ISSN: | 2397-3722 | DOI: | 10.1038/s41612-024-00596-3 |
顯示於: | 大氣科學系 |
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