臺中地區1960-1999年間之溫度及降雨分析
Temperature and Rainfall Analysis in Taichung Area, 1960-1999
Journal
中華農業研究
Journal Volume
51
Journal Issue
2
Pages
66-78
Date Issued
2000
Author(s)
Abstract
我國農業生產一直以雨害為首位氣象災害。未來氣候變遷所導致之水文循環，降雨量將明顯變化，尤其是豪大雨發生的機率將大幅提高。本研究以臺中地區過去40年（1960-1999年）之氣象資料作分析，包括溫度及降水的變化趨勢。分析結果顯示，氣溫方面，40年間平均氣溫增加0.86℃，平均最高溫下降0.41℃，平均最低溫則明顯上升1.66℃，因此日較溫明顯下降。臺中過去40年來降雨趨勢，總雨量僅些微增加，但在時間及空間上分布並不均勻。尤其是農作物生長期之春季（3, 4, 5月），降雨量、降雨時間及豪雨發生次數均顯著增加，將影響水稻生長及產量甚鉅，因為此段時期為水稻一期作主要生育期。至於降雨特性的預測模式，arima在春季降雨特性的可有效預測趨勢變化，但對於極端值仍有低估現象。
Rainfall could cause serious meteorological damage in agricultural production. Owing to the effects on hydrological cycle by global climate change, especially for the heavy rain. Meanwhile rainfall intensity is also one of the important factors affecting crop production. The objectives of this study is firstly to analyze the trends on total amount precipitation, rainfall duration, rainfall intensity, and other meteorological factors in Taichung over the past 40 years (1960-1999), and to evaluate the impacts of rainfall on the growth and yield of rice. In the change of meteological factors over the past 40 years, the results showed that the mean temperature increased 0.86℃, mean maximum temperature decreased 0.41℃, and mean minimum temperature increased more than 1.66℃. Therefore, there was a significant decline as 2℃ for diurnal differential temperature in Taichung. As for the trends of rainfall, the total amount of rainfall over the past 40 years increased slightly, but the rainfall distribution in temporal and spatial was unequal. The total amount and duration of rainfall, as well as the number of rainstorms apparently increased in spring (Mar, Apr and May) season, which could significantly influence rice yield for rice cultivation. For the establishment of rainfall forecasting the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model was employed and the trend of the change in precipitation during spring season could be effectively predicted.
Subjects
降雨
氣候變遷
ARIMA模式
Rainfall
Climate change
Autoregressive integrated moving average
ARIMA
Type
journal article