Joint Normality Test for the Returns on the Futures and Spot
Part Of
Handbook of Investment Analysis, Portfolio Management, and Financial Derivatives
Journal Volume
2-4
Start Page
1129
End Page
1158
ISBN
9789811269936
9789811269943
Date Issued
2024-04-08
Author(s)
DOI
10.1142/9789811269943_0018
Abstract
It is well known that the optimal hedge ratios derived based on the mean-variance approach, the expected utility-maximizing approach, the mean extended-Gini approach, and the generalized semivariance approach will all converge to the minimum-variance hedge ratio if the futures price follows a pure martingale process and if the spot and futures returns are jointly normal. In this chapter, we perform empirical tests to see if the pure martingale and joint normality hypotheses hold using 25 different futures contracts and five different hedging horizons. Our results indicate that the pure martingale hypothesis holds for all commodities and all hedging horizons except for three stock index futures contracts. As for joint normality, we propose two new tests based on the generalized method of moments, which allow for calculating multivariate test statistics that take account of the contemporaneous correlation across spot and futures returns. Our findings show that the joint normality hypothesis generally does not hold except for a few contracts and relatively long hedging horizons.
Subjects
Hedge ratio
Joint normality hypothesis
Pure martingale and joint normality hypotheses
Pure martingale hypothesis
Publisher
World Scientific Publishing Co.
Type
book part