Incubation Period and Serial Interval of Mpox in 2022 Global Outbreak Compared with Historical Estimates
Journal
Emerging Infectious Diseases
Journal Volume
30
Journal Issue
6
ISSN
1080-6040
1080-6059
Date Issued
2024-06
Author(s)
Luis Ponce
Natalie M. Linton
Wu Han Toh
Hao-Yuan Cheng
Robin N. Thompson
Jonathan Dushoff
Abstract
Understanding changes in the transmission dynamics of mpox requires comparing recent estimates of key epidemiologic parameters with historical data. We derived historical estimates for the incubation period and serial interval for mpox and contrasted them with pooled estimates from the 2022 outbreak. Our findings show the pooled mean infection-to-onset incubation period was 8.1 days for the 2022 outbreak and 8.2 days historically, indicating the incubation periods remained relatively consistent over time, despite a shift in the major mode of transmission. However, we estimated the onset-to-onset serial interval at 8.7 days using 2022 data, compared with 14.2 days using historical data. Although the reason for this shortening of the serial interval is unclear, it may be because of increased public health interventions or a shift in the mode of transmission. Recognizing such temporal shifts is essential for informed response strategies, and public health measures remain crucial for controlling mpox and similar future outbreaks.
Publisher
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Type
journal article
File(s)![Thumbnail Image]()
Loading...
Name
2024 Ponce EID.pdf
Size
3.46 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum
(MD5):5f229b0595ab5a17250a622ca9c1c276