考量複合式災害之公路與大眾運輸路網韌性多階段隨機最佳化
Other Title
MULTI‐STAGE STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION OF HIGHWAY AND PUBLIC TRANSIT NETWORK RESILIENCE UNDER COMPOUND DISASTER SCENARIOS
Journal
中國土木水利工程學刊
Journal Volume
37
Journal Issue
8
Start Page
613
End Page
624
ISSN
1015-5856
Date Issued
2025-12
Author(s)
Abstract
本研究以韌性指標評估運輸路網在災害事件下吸收衝擊並回復至正常水準的能力，將複合式災害情境及公車系統納入研究框架，並建構一多階段隨機規劃數學模式。目標為最大化路網韌性，並在此基礎上最小化小客車旅次和公車旅次因複合式災害所受的影響。模式分為準備、應變和復原三個階段，各階段除對應的道路行動方案外，亦納入公車路網調整。又考量複合式災害具有接連發生的特性，進一步將各階段細分為數個時期，每期皆配置固定預算以執行相應措施。本研究藉由案例測試驗證本模式之合理性及有效性。結果顯示，本模式之道路與公車行動方案之決策合理且具顯著效果，決策者可透過本模式在災前優先保護重要的路段，將旅客受到的影響降至最低。公車路網調整單獨實施時提升路網韌性之效果有限，但可透過搭配災前行動方案提升整體路網韌性達到相當水準。
This study adopts resilience as the key performance metric for assessing a transport network's ability to absorb shocks and recover to normal functionality under disasters, and extends the framework to include the bus system. We formulate a multi-stage stochastic programming model that seeks to maximize network resilience and, concurrently, minimize the disruption to private vehicles and bus trips caused by compound disasters. The model comprises three sequential phases-preparedness, response, and recovery. Each phase incorporates not only road action plans but also bus network adjustments. Considering that compound disasters may occur in succession, each phase is further subdivided into multiple periods, each with a fixed budget for implementing corresponding actions. A case study validates the model's feasibility and effectiveness: the combined road and bus action plans yield reasonable, effective and practical solutions, enabling decision-makers to prioritize pre-disaster protection of critical road segments and thereby minimize passenger impacts. While bus network adjustment alone produces limited resilience gains, its integration with preparedness measures markedly elevates overall network resilience.
Subjects
複合式災害
韌性
隨機規劃
公車路網調整
compound disasters
resilience
stochastic programming
bus network adjustment
Type
journal article