https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/470096
標題: | Change-point detection of long-duration extreme precipitation and the effect on hydrologic design: A case study of south Taiwan | 作者: | Chu, H.-J. Pan, T.-Y. Liou, J.-J. |
關鍵字: | Change-point analysis; Frequency analysis; Precipitation change | 公開日期: | 2012 | 卷: | 26 | 期: | 8 | 起(迄)頁: | 1123-1130 | 來源出版物: | Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment | 摘要: | An increase in the global temperature has intensified the hydrologic cycle, which affects the temporal patterns of precipitation. This study analyzed a long-term annual dataset measuring maximum precipitation in south Taiwan, and identified the change point of the time series using the cumulative sum technique. The result reveals a clear change point of the annual maximum rainfall for 24-h durations in 2004 at most observations. The average 24-h-duration precipitation depth in the study area increased by 27 and 36% for 20-year and 100-year extreme events compared with and without data after 2004, respectively. The long-duration precipitation depth demonstrates a significant positive trend following the change point. Furthermore, this study assesses the changes of hydrologic design while precipitation data are updated annually. The designed 20- and 100-year storm will decrease abruptly when the observed data are subsequently updated until 2004. Because of climate change, this issue is worthy of attention in hydrologic designs. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. |
URI: | https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/470096 | DOI: | 10.1007/s00477-012-0566-0 | SDG/關鍵字: | Precipitation (meteorology); Annual maximum rainfalls; Change point detection; Change-point analysis; Cumulative sum techniques; Extreme precipitation; Frequency Analysis; Precipitation change; Precipitation depths; Climate change; climate change; extreme event; frequency analysis; hydrological cycle; precipitation assessment; rainfall; Taiwan |
顯示於: | 氣候天氣災害研究中心 |
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